Amplify Energy Corp. – Ticker: AMPY

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1. Executive Summary

  • Company: Amplify Energy Corp.
  • Ticker: AMPY
  • Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Investment Recommendation: Hold — Strong cash flow and low leverage are positives, but recent merger termination and operational risks warrant caution.

2. Company Overview

  • Business Model: Amplify Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in acquiring, developing, and producing oil and natural gas properties.
  • Operations: The company’s assets are located in Oklahoma, the Rockies (Bairoil), federal waters offshore Southern California (Beta), East Texas/North Louisiana, and the Eagle Ford.
  • Management: Martyn Willsher serves as President and CEO.

3. Financial Analysis

  • Full-Year 2024:
    • Revenue: $275.6 million.
    • Net Income: $12.9 million.
    • Adjusted EBITDA: $103.0 million.
    • Free Cash Flow: $18.0 million.
    • Net Debt: $127 million.
    • Net Debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA: 1.2x. 

4. Stock Performance

  • Current Price: $2.89 (as of May 9, 2025).
  • 52-Week Range: $2.27 – $8.15.
  • Market Cap: Approximately $108.5 million. 

5. Valuation Analysis

  • P/E Ratio: 8.68.
  • Book Value per Share: $10.14.
  • Analyst Price Targets: Range from $8.50 to $11.00, with an average of $9.67. 

6. Industry & Market Analysis

  • Industry Trends: The oil and gas sector is experiencing volatility due to fluctuating commodity prices and regulatory changes.
  • Market Position: Amplify focuses on mature, low-decline assets, providing stable production and cash flow.

7. Risk Analysis

  • Operational Risks: Potential environmental incidents, such as oil spills, could impact operations and finances.
  • Financial Risks: Exposure to commodity price fluctuations and potential challenges in accessing capital markets.
  • Regulatory Risks: Changes in environmental regulations could affect offshore operations.

8. Growth Catalysts

  • Asset Optimization: Initiatives to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs.
  • Strategic Alternatives: Exploring opportunities to maximize shareholder value following the termination of the Juniper Capital merger. 

9. Analyst Sentiment

  • Consensus Rating: Buy.
  • Average Price Target: $9.67.
  • Number of Ratings: 3. 

10. Conclusion

Amplify Energy demonstrates solid financial performance with strong cash flow and manageable debt levels. However, the recent termination of the Juniper Capital merger introduces uncertainty regarding future growth strategies. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings releases and strategic announcements to assess the company’s direction.

11. Appendix

  • Recent News:
    • Termination of merger agreement with Juniper Capital due to market volatility.
    • Scheduled Q1 2025 earnings release on May 12, 2025. 

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